Eruption: a web-based simulation for managing a volcanic crisis

Imagine

We investigated the following research Question:
Is it possible to predict such a catastrophic event and take measures in order to protect human lives?

We watched a video about the successful prediction of Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991:

https://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/ess05.sci.ess.earthsys.pinatubo/mount-pinatubo-predicting-a-volcanic-eruption/?#.W0Htq9Iza02

The following points were addressed in our discussion:

• How did the scientists manage to predict Mount Pinatubo’s eruption?
• What tools did they use to monitor the volcanic activity?
• What instruments they needed?
• Were the scientists 100% confident about their prediction?

Create

We accessed the volcanic crisis simulation Erruption! http://www.dartmouth.edu/~renshaw/eruption/

Their task we decided to persue was to monitor the volcano, interpret the data, and, if needed, act to protect the community. In order to achieve this, we navigated through the preliminary steps of the simulation.

We learned about:

1. The different volcano crisis codes

B. The instruments used to evaluate volcanic activity, namely seismographs, geodimeters, and correlation spectrometers that measure seismic activity, earth’s surface deformation and amount of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere respectively. In particular,

• As magma nears the surface of a volcano, gasses begin to leak from the cracked surface. Sulfur dioxide is one of the main gasses that escapes.  The amount of gas in the atmosphere above a volcano can be measured by a device called a correlation spectrometer or CoSpec. An increase in the amount of gas emitted can signify the approach of magma toward the surface of the volcano.
• As magma nears the surface and the surface deforms and earthquakes are generated.  The more magmatic activity there is, the more earthquakes there are.  By keeping track of the number of earthquakes through time, one can get an idea of the degree of volcanic unrest. Although large earthquakes can be felt, the vast majority of smaller earthquakes are only detected with sensitive equipment.  A seismometer is usually used to measure and record the seismic activity at a volcano.  Constant monitoring is needed to keep volcanologists up to date. A change in the number of earthquakes per day will signify a change in the activity at the volcano. 
• As magma begins to push toward the surface within a volcano, the volcano bulges outward and upward, and cracks or fissures may develop or become wider. Whatever the deformation, it is important to monitor because it could give an indication of an impending eruption. Much of the deformation Earth’s surface consists of movements that are difficult to detect by the human eye.  The displacements can be vertical or horizontal and can be measured to high precision by the use of sensitive instruments called geodetic distance meters or geodimeters. Geodimeters measure the distance between two points.  The geodimeter is situated at one particular point.  A laser beam is emitted from the geodimeter, hits a retroreflector at a second point, and returns to a recording device on the geodimeter.  The distance between the points is measured from the time that takes the beam to make a round trip between instrument and reflector. If the distance between two points changes with time, then the earth between the two points is deforming. On volcanoes it has been shown that as the deformation rate increases, the probability of an eruption increases. Constant, steady displacements do not generally signify that an eruption is imminent, as they are often caused by tectonic forces rather than magma movement.  In contrast, significant increases in the rate of deformation are more often related to magma movement rather than tectonic forces.

C. How to evaluate the volcanic hazard using the aforementioned measurements combined with historical data about the volcano’s past activity. Using past records we constructed probability tables relating to the readings of each instrument and the probability that it will remain dormant

We finally engaged in the simulation. It is a simulation of a twenty-five day period of volcanic activity leading to a volcanic crisis. Time is accelerated so that the entire exercise takes about twelve minutes to complete. After finishing the simulation, we compared our results, and discussed about the strategies we used and the outcome of their effort to manage the crisis.

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We were asked to repeat (perform and explain the several aspects of) the simulation at home with our families. Each family as a group was asked to engage in the simulation and produce the best possible results. A discussion was organized in the school, where families presented and compared their results. In this way, not only the us but also our parents and the community as a whole become more aware about the hazards of a volcanic eruption, the complexity of predicting the behavior of a volcano as well as the importance of helping the authorities (e.g. by complying to instructions) when such emergencies occur